We'll never have an accurate number of percentage of riders who crash. An MB poll will be pretty skewed.
Usually, when people ask about this, they're looking for some rationale or way to reinforce decisions they've already made. I know I did all sorts of (il)logical gymnastics to make sense of riding when I started. And a lot of it was based on common misinformation.
When EP_scoot figured out the stats from our
Who's Crashed thread
way back in 2008, we found that they were fairly close to national stats for all crashes. Still, many crashes are never reported to insurance or law enforcement, so almost all numbers from any source are probably under-reported.
Fatalities and injuries rose for several years until 2009. The drop coincided with a huge drop in motorcycle sales. But the numbers are climbing again.
The question is: Even if we had accurate stats, how would it affect your decisions? If —hypothetically — 30% of riders crash and 15% of those have more than minor injury, would you behave differently than if the numbers were 10% higher or lower?
The risk is very real and omnipresent. It's very common for injury to occur, even at low speeds. You can do things to reduce your risk but there is no way to guarantee you will not crash.
My gear has saved my ass, most recently a couple weeks ago. I was pulling over into some loose gravel and lost traction in my rear wheel. I've actually handled this situation a dozen times, but the tire was leaking and… whatever, my fault for not checking it. I laid it down at good speed and slid and rolled quite a ways. My pants shredded to the Kevlar, but I had no road rash. I rode away.
I'm not ATGATT but I also don't fool myself about the likelihood of crashing and the consequences. Stats are one thing, but I've been to the ER twice and have too many friends who've been pretty seriously injured riding.